Aug 13, 2025
3 min read
Information gathered by San Francisco collected from business activities and community sources for the Book Beige, provides timely insight into economic activity at a national and regional level.Two new indexes are based on the answers to a beige book questionnaire following the business sensation throughout the United States.Helps improve accuracy of prediction.The latest index readings suggest weakening economic growth and reinforcing inflationary pressure over the coming months.
The information fed in San Francisco collects from businesses and community sources for beige books provides time with economic activity and regional level activity.Two-new-based Bige Book Questieire indexes improve the accuracy of short-term forecasts.The last reading of the index suggests that economic growth degrades and intensifies inflationary pressures in the coming months.
Fed Francisco must represent the 12th district - which represents nine nine states, different and Commonwealth.To have a better understanding and an emergency study of Fatot Port Port Port Port Port Port Port Port Port Port Port Port
Views about the economy from enterprises and communities play an important role in the creation of economic results.For example, future inflation expectations can help promote or slow down investments in the current consumer costs and business.Additionally, economic forecasts rely on models that contain more traditional "tough" quantitative data and "soft" qualitative information.It has been shown that the addition of these soft measures has been shown, shown as shown, shown that the accuracy of economic forecasts is shown (See Shapiro, Moritz and Wilson 2022 and their referral lyrics).According to two popular methods, in many of the available measures, Michigan's university rely on test data, or as a text analysis, like Daily News Fed News Fed Index.News.
This economic letter has been discussing the economic information collected through the SF FED book questionnaire for the last 10 plus for years.Who observes our contacts with attitudes and expectations for economic growth and inflation.We find that these new indexes are reliable for early official data permit rates and help improve the accuracy of the forecast of the nearest period.The index showed a strong increase in inflation as a purpose.Regular monitoring of changes in these two indexes, the San Francisco Federal Federation has launched a new twelfth business mood data page.
To create the indicators of local feelings
Fed San Francisco sent a hazel brown book questionnaire every year to collect local information.In addition to answering the questions about their organizations, respondents shared their opinion on regional and national topics, including economic affairs and inflation pressure.
On two questions, respondents state whether they see the growth of national production and increased inflation rates, decline or stays in the following year using a standard five -stage scale.We have been using these answers since 2014 to outline two business sentiment indices, one of the economic activities and inflation.symmetrical around zero.For example, we ask if the activity is expected to "drop significantly", "Reduction" = –1, "will remain unchanged" = 0, "increase" = 1 or "significantly increase" = 2. We add reactions to weight sharing for each level in each index.In light comparison with traditional economic indicators.
The feeling of business tracking
Figure 1 shows the road of SF Fed Businessness of the Spin of the National Girls of the National Grosy of the average of the average of the average of the average. pej xeem los ntawm 2014 nyob hauv nruab nrab-2025.
Economic growth
SF -fed commercial index usually tracks the national gross domestic product during the last decade;The correlation coefficient of +0.63 on the scale of -1 to 1 indicates a strong, moderate positive relationship between the two scales.A relatively trendy exception started in 2022, when our indicators began to show a significant decline in national gross domestic product.Respondents were about economic growth in all parts of the region and reported sharp hopes in consumer spending and financial health in the health of the epidemic after the exhaustion of the epidemic (Abdul Rahman and Olivira 2023).A similar reduction appeared in other commercial and family feelings.However, overall economic growth continued at a strong pace.This difference between the feelings and the stable data that began in 2022 called the word "vibeession" (Daly 2024, Scanlon 2022).
Another reason for the difference between the national country and the obligation of their work is the impact of their views. Our patents can also show local views and local relations.
Figure 2 supports this basis that shows this SF index with an increase in regional products (Golden).We find that these actions are together with each other with related coefficient in + 0.74.We identify a series as described before.
The regional economy is the moody mood
Our search indicates that the feeling index of SF Pede can work as accurate initial growth in national and regional output.The regional persons of the regional books are collected twice in every quarter, it provides insight into particular times in economic activity.The data releases of the data reilling is more delayed to increase national product.
In the first half of the year, the SF Fed mood index became negative, and relationships indicated increased uncertainty in the field of trade policy and labor market expectations.Cleveland and Dallas Fed.
Type of business with inflationary pressure
Our questions about new answers are considered to see what is happening in the increased budget and measurement of the Financing of the District (PCCE).
SF Fed's inflation meter index against inflation is applied
Likewise, such as the Businessentative Index, blisters of the blisters are a first indicator of official inflation data are usually ex -inscrated changes in the correction of +0.65.
Current index results in fedeas a strong increase in the relation to fedeas, a lot of reactions have 2% Targets in the Federal Researway.The peak is the same in 2018 that has increased trade tannens with ChinaOther business and domestic is located obmedine, such as FedE Business is expensiveSurvey of the prospects of New York Fed
Doing better projections
We think that we have overcome the regional conditions of our country and that consumes the efforts of the world's growth ratings are the best and previous forecasts for 20232. We support SFS attributes with a SFS and SFS analysis with a SFS SFS analysis.
Figure 4 compares the correction of a decision outside of the recycling sample.In all economic transactions, the integration of the SF Fends or SF Inflation Scale Deception for reducing high-led to reducing the expected errors.Balkke and Perersen 2002. The results are also flexible when using a way for the expectation of local area from Jordà (2005) one year expectation of product growth and short inflation.This also supports our quality levels as early economic indicators of the future economy.
Error with a fed without SF FED fed
Information collected from the trade and traffic in San Francisco regional state of the National Level of National and Security well today, SF's Galgos Springs
Abdelrachman, Hamza and Luis E. Oliveira.2023 "Savings on construction and falling".Economic letter 2023-11 (May 8).
Balkay, Nathan S., and D'TON .200. "Beige manager displays economic events to determine."The Book of Money, Debts and Banking 34 (1), pages 114-136.
Daily, Mary F. 2024.19 January.
Economic Review 95 (1), 161-1
Skonlon, Banana .2022.Banana Subsak (June 30).
Shophero, Adam Hale, Morts Soodhov and Daniel Wilson. "Measure the news."
Explaining the Economic Letter of San Francisco administration does not reflect the management of the Federal Reserve Bank of the Federal Reserve Bank or the Governors of the Federal Reserve.
