Jan 16, 2026
3 min read
Trust the process when the Hurricanes and Hoosiers end the season on Monday night.
Tom Fornelli's College Football Playoff Betting Guide: CFP National Championship Picks Miami vs.Indiana
Trust the process when the Hurricanes and Huskies end their season on Monday night
That's 933 games down, with one to go.
The 2025 college football season concludes Monday night in Miami Gardens, Florida when Indiana takes on No. 10 Miami in the College Football Playoff National Championship, and here are my picks for the season.
I was sad for the first half and incredibly relieved for the second half.Last week's semis felt like my favorites of the entire season.I gave Oregon a team total under 20.5 in the Peach Bowl only to watch the Ducks score with 22 seconds left and lose 56-22.The good news is that the total on foot elsewhere is up to 22.5 and I hope some of you were able to find it there.
But that's all behind us now.We have one game left and I have picks for distribution, general and props.Let's finish the season 3-0 and see if we can carry this momentum into next season.
Much has been made of the College Football Playoff about Miami's pass rush, led by Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor. It's for good reason, as both will be first-round picks in the NFL draft and are a big reason the Hurricanes have made it this far.However, while Miami's pass rush gets all the attention, what most people don't realize is that statistically, it's not the best pass rusher in the game.
The Indiana Hoosiers defense ranks third in the country with a 41.3% pressure rate and ninth with a 9.0% sack rate.Miami is seventh nationally with a 40.8% pressure rate and 11th with an 8.7% sack rate.The difference is how Indiana gets there.
Miami doesn't need to blitz and doesn't do it often.Their blitz rate is 68th in the nation at 27.8 percent.Indiana's is 35.2 percent, which is ninth.
So, on paper, you see, Miami's defense is very good at putting pressure on the Miami offensive line, which is less pressured than any other team in the country. Miami's offensive line only allowed 17.7 percent of its back pressure, which is an amazing number. Not only is that the best rate in the country, Ole Miss is second at 22.8%. The national average is 31.8%! They are great!
However, this number is somewhat misleading.Carson Beck and the Miami quarterback averaged 2.49 seconds off the ball.This is the sixth shortest time in the country.Beck gets rid of the ball quickly, often on screens, RPOs and quick outs.It is difficult to get pressure when the ball is not long.What if Beck faces the same problem that almost every quarterback faced against Indiana?
After he takes the snap, he drops back and the defense he sees is not the defense he saw before the snap.How quickly does it process it?What if that split second is enough for Indiana to get home or force him to get rid of the ball under duress?Those are the topics covered by Oregon's Dante Moore, as well as Alabama's Ty Simpson and Ohio State's Julian Sayin.
The good news for Miami is that Beck has more experience than those guys, so they hope he can solve the puzzle better.The bad news, if not, gets worse when Beck charges.His completion percentage under pressure this year is only 49.1%, and he has thrown too many interceptions for touchdowns.I believeThe Pick: Indiana -8.5 (-110) on FanDuel
One of the key factors in this game is the health of the Miami defense.Akheem Mesidor took the win against Ole Miss but is expected to play, and Miami coach Mario Cristobal described him as "full throttle."Cristobal said the same thing about defensive end Ahmed Moten, who re-aggravated his ankle early in the win at Ole Miss. I don't want to call Cristobal a liar, but I don't think Moten is at full strength considering Moten played just 18 snaps in a week after playing just 19 against Ohio State.Maybe 60% gas.
Cornerbacks OJ Frederique Jr.and Damari Brown are also questionable.Frederique played just five snaps in the Fiesta Bowl and Brown hasn't played since Week 14.
And finally, they're missing cornerback Xavier Lucas, who was ejected in the Fiesta Bowl due to targeting issues and had to sit the first half of that game.So, in the second period, especially in the first half, Miami's defense was confused along the defensive line and lacked power.It doesn't seem to be in a very good position. That's why I'm targeting the entire Indiana team in the first half.
Indiana's top three are rarely playing at the same time this year, but they are in the playoffs.Elijah Sarratt, Omar Cooper Jr.and Charlie Becker have combined for 21 catches for 276 yards and seven touchdowns over the last two games, while tight end Riley Nowakowski has caught five passes for 54 yards.This will be a tough task for Miami's defense all night, but especially in the first half.Pick: Indiana 1st Half Team Overall 13.5 (-135) DraftKings
Mark Fletcher Jr.He's been a key player for Miami's offense all season, but we saw something different from him this season.On the season, Fletcher's 13.07% burst rate ranks 42nd nationally among 272 running backs with at least five carries per game.So it's not bad, but it's not good.
Fletcher's 16 runs of 16 yards or more are tied for 18th.However, eight of those 16 runs of 16 yards or more came in three playoff games.Why do we suddenly care about rushing 16 yards or more?Because FleetDuel reports that Fletcher's longest yardage of the game is 15.5 yards.Silly!
Now, I feel the need to point out that only one of those rushes came against Ohio State, and that the Buckeyes' defense is much closer to that Indiana unit than Texas A&M and Ole Miss.But it's clear, Miami did something a little different in the running game to help Fletcher break these long runs than they did in the regular season.So I'm more than happy to bet on his talent, and his offensive line, to help him break off at least one 16-yard run.The Pick: Mark Fletcher Jr. Longest Rush Over 15.5 (-115)
|College Football Playoffs |Record |Units |
First round |1-3 |-2.29 |
Quarterfinal |2-2 |-0.30 |
Semi-final |1-1 |-0.05 |
Total |4-6 |-2.64 |
Who will win and cover Indiana vs Miami?SportsLine's computer model has simulated the College Football Playoff National Championship Game 10,000 times and projects that one side will cover 50% of the time.Head over to SportsLine to find out who it is.
